The UK needs more cooling. Are we planning the infrastructure for it?
Hotter summers are changing what UK buildings need from their energy systems. Explore how heat pumps can support future heating and cooling requirements.
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There’s a long-running joke in Britain that the country grinds to a halt whenever the weather does anything other than rain. A few inches of snow or a heatwave and suddenly, all public transport has stopped and everyone’s asking if it’s okay to wear shorts to work.
But as hotter summers become more common, coping with the heat is becoming a much more serious challenge. Many of the buildings we rely on every day weren’t designed with prolonged high temperatures in mind, leaving them poorly equipped for the conditions we can expect in the years and decades ahead.
The Climate Change Committee (CCC)’s latest assessment of UK climate risk puts the scale of that challenge into perspective. It warns that excess heat-related deaths during heatwaves could rise from around 1,400-3,000 a year today to as many as 10,000 by 2050 without further adaptation. To combat this, the Committee recommends expanding access to active cooling, particularly across hospitals, care homes and schools.
For organisations responsible for large buildings and estates, this changes the conversation around energy infrastructure. Heating has traditionally dominated the agenda, but hotter summers are changing what UK buildings need from their energy systems. Explore how heat pumps can support future heating and cooling requirements.
“The UK was built for a climate that no longer exists today and will be increasingly distant in years to come.”
A heating system that not only heats
Until recent years, the priority for most UK buildings has been straightforward – keeping people warm – and our infrastructure reflects that. Gas boilers have provided heating and hot water, while buildings that need cooling have typically relied on separate systems to provide it.
As temperatures rise, buildings will need to meet a broader range of heating and cooling needs.
Many heat pumps can operate in reverse – transferring heat out of a building to provide cooling as well as bringing heat in as needed. Organisations planning to replace fossil-fuel heating can therefore factor future cooling requirements into those investment decisions.
In commercial buildings, that flexibility can change how thermal requirements are met. Traditionally, separate plants would serve each need, for example, a boiler in the basement and a chiller on the roof. Heat-pump systems create other possibilities, including configurations that can provide both functions within the same system.
Energy systems are long-term investments, with major plant expected to remain in service for many years. Decisions made today therefore need to account for how the building will be used and the conditions it will need to cope with, over its operating life.
One building, multiple demands
Large buildings rarely have a single, consistent requirement for heating and cooling. Occupancy, how spaces are used, internal heat gains and even the orientation and fabric of different parts of the building can all affect what is needed at any given time.
Take a hospital, for example. Patient wards, operating theatres, offices and areas housing specialist equipment can all have very different and specific temperature requirements. Universities face a similar mix across teaching spaces, laboratories, accommodation and communal areas. In some buildings, one area may require heating while another needs cooling at the same time.
This is where the flexibility of heat-pump systems becomes particularly relevant. Certain configurations can respond to varying needs across a building or estate, while systems with heat recovery can capture heat removed from areas being cooled and use it where heat is needed elsewhere.
This creates an opportunity to make better use of energy already moving through the building, provided the system is designed around its actual loads and operating patterns.
Heat pumps aren’t one-size-fits-all
Heat pumps come in several forms; each suited to different applications.
Air-to-air heat pumps transfer heat between the outside air and the indoor air. They provide space heating in winter and can also provide cooling in summer, making them well suited to buildings that require year-round temperature control.
Air-to-water heat pumps transfer heat from the outside air into a building’s water-based heating system, providing space heating and, in many cases, domestic hot water. Some reversible systems can also provide cooling, but only where the wider heating and cooling system—including emitters, pipework and controls—has been designed to accommodate it.
Ground-source heat pumps can use the relatively stable temperature below the surface, extracting heat when a building needs warming and transferring excess heat back when cooling is required. Some systems can also use the ground’s lower temperature to provide passive cooling, reducing the amount of electricity needed compared to active cooling. This can be especially useful for larger buildings and developments with substantially different heating and cooling loads, including applications where demand occurs simultaneously across different parts of a site.
Available space, existing systems, operating patterns, and the scale and timing of demand will all influence which approach is most suitable. These factors must be understood before deciding how a heat pump system should work within the wider energy strategy.
What more cooling means for the grid
Expanding access to active cooling will inevitably increase electricity use. The CCC estimates that cooling could add 15-30 TWh to annual electricity demand by 2050 – equivalent to around 5-10% of the UK’s current annual electricity use.
That additional demand needs to be considered alongside the wider shift towards electrification. Heat pumps, EV charging and other electrical systems can all change when and how much power a site requires, so organisations need to understand their grid capacity and how demand peaks throughout the day.
Efficiency also matters. Building fabric, controls, and the way systems are operated can influence how much heating or cooling is needed in the first place, while well-designed systems can reduce unnecessary energy use.
Understanding these pressures at a site level gives businesses a clearer picture of what their electrical infrastructure can support, where constraints might exist and what changes could be needed as demand grows.
Planning for the conditions ahead
The systems being designed today will shape how buildings perform for years to come. The Climate Change Committee’s projections suggest those years will bring greater exposure to extreme heat, alongside continued pressure to decarbonise heating and reduce emissions.
Understanding how a building is likely to respond to those conditions can help inform investment decisions. HI Group is currently developing an Integrated Environmental Solutions Virtual Environment for MidKent College to better understand its future cooling needs. The modelling will investigate potential overheating hotspots and peak cooling loads, as well as the effectiveness of passive, behavioural and active cooling strategies.
This type of modelling can help organisations understand where cooling may be needed before deciding how to respond. If you’re looking to future-proof your estate, get in touch with our team to discuss how modelling could support your plans.
HI Group works with organisations to assess their energy requirements and design & deliver solutions around the needs of their buildings across the estate.
If you’re planning an upgrade or want to understand what decarbonised heating and cooling could look like across your site, get in touch with the team.
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